China’s Communist Party (CCP) has predicted that Donald Trump will officially lose the 2020 election, then run again for the U.S. Presidency in 2024, either as a Republican or third-party candidate.
China is also nervous that Joe Biden, if President, will find it difficult to reverse Trump’s pro-American nationalism, the Chinese government’s official news outlet, Global Times, reported.
Chinese analysts told the Times that “although Trump might have to accept his defeat eventually, his legacy has already made irreversible changes to the U.S.”
The U.S. society has become more conservative and polarized, and the U.S.-led international alliance has become divided, according to the Times.
The Chinese government claimed that “these changes will make it hard for Biden to push pro-establishment policy, and in 2024, Trump might run for election again, or a Trump-style party will be established to reshape the political structure of the U.S.”
By pro-establishment, China particularly means full cooperation with the World Trade Organization (WTO), World Health Organization (WHO), United Nations (UN), Trilateral Commission (TC), G20 and Club of Rome.
Shen Yi – politics expert at Fudan University in Shanghai – told the Times:
In this election we can see that the pro-establishment elites from both the Democrats and the Republicans worked together to kick Trump out of the White House, and the voters who hate the establishment elites have used their 72 million votes for Trump to prove that they are not the minority in this election.
Trump also knows that his four-year term has changed US society profoundly, which is why he has confidence for 2024, Shen said.
Diao Daming, an associate professor at the Renmin University of China in Beijing, told the Times:
Trump might face a new group of competitors within the GOP, and those who supported him will become his rivals. A long list of Republicans are said to be considering a run for the 2024 presidential election, including Trump’s own vice president, Mike Pence, according to Reuters.
The younger generation within the Republicans such as Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Tom Cotton may seize the opportunity and have stronger influence by then, putting huge pressure on Trump in the next presidential election,
Trump may not even be nominated in the primary election, he added.
The party news site blasted Trump for his governance:
Under the four years of Trump’s presidency, the anti-science sentiment and advocation of violence have been mobilized in the U.S., and even evangelicalism has had the tendency of being a political force, according to Lü Xiang, a research fellow on U.S. studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing.
This has cast doubt on whether Biden will be able to change this unhealthy atmosphere over the next four years.
Lü said that “controlling the COVID-19 epidemic situation in the US is a very urgent task for Biden, and his team has also prioritized this mission.”
But the “red states,” which oppose city lock-downs and shutting down of public facilities, and are even strongly against wearing masks and social distancing, are unlikely to cooperate with the federal government.
Those with anti-intellectual opinions on vaccines, and are against scientists like Anthony Fauci will cause a series of headaches for the new administration, Lü said.
The Times claimed that many Western countries are “desperately expecting Biden to bring the U.S. back to normal and create more certainty, but Chinese analysts warned that the profound changes within the US will even increase the uncertainty for Biden, and in 2024, the anti-establishment forces would be more powerful and a Trump-style administration could return if Biden fails to heal the country with successful governance.”
In 2024, the U.S. two-party system might change to a multi-party system, as the establishment elites and pro-establishment forces in Democrats and Republicans may group together, the far-right conservative forces who support Trump may unite, and the young generation and far-left forces, who support Bernie Sanders, could split from the Democrats to challenge the establishment elites as well, Shen said.
“In other words, four years later, not only the Republicans would be divided, the Democrats could also face the same problem,” Lü echoed Shen.
If Biden wants to bring the country back to right track, he must overcome a series of challenges, such as fighting COVID-19, economic recovery, racial equality and Medicare reform, and if he fails, the country will be more divided and more extreme rather than return to moderation and certainty, Lü said.
If any of these claims, observations or criticisms has a familiar tilt, remind yourself that this is official Chinese Communist Party (CCP) propaganda, not America’s mass media, despite both sometimes sounding somewhat the same.