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Tulsi was most Googled Dem in Primary debate, but then scored 0% in Harvard-Harris poll – are those results “fixed”?

Tulsi Gabbard

Army Major Tulsi Gabbard was riding high at the end of July, when many observers thought they saw an outstanding performance in the July 31 Democrat Primary debate.

But the Major was shot down two days later when polls showed her popularity almost at zero.

Right of center Drudge Report thought Tulsi easily won the debate in their after-debate polling, and populist/right Breitbart News saw it the same way. CNN also praised her.

2020 presidential candidate Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) had a breakout performance on the second night of the CNN Detroit Democratic Debate, making her the most searched 2020 democratic candidate on Google.

In Breitbart News poll, Gabbard won 50 percent, Andrew Yang came in second at 20 percent, former Vice President Joe Biden came in third at eight percent, and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio fourth at seven percent.

Gabbard won the Drudge poll with over 39 percent of the vote, with Yang coming in second at 24 percent. Joe Biden came in third with 15 percent, while de Blasio came in fourth at five percent.

Surprise! The Harvard-Harris Poll found that none of the above meant anything two days later on August 2, and Gabbard fell below folks who weren’t even running, including Eric Swalwell and Michael Bloomberg. Out of 23 candidates only Wayne Messam had less support (no votes).

She was awarded one vote out of 570.

And it wasn’t just Tulsi. Horrible results were reported for others, including Julian Castro, who received 4 out of 570 in a poll that included 14% Hispanics. Kirsten Gillibrand also had only one, despite an aggressive performance on July 31.

These are the results. Keep reading, as the plot thickens. Candidates are marked in bold for a reason.

Page 151 – question and results from Harvard-Harris Poll

Fielding Period: July 31 – August 1, 2019
HCAPS (Filtered on Registered Voters)
Weighted To The U.S. General Adult Population
2 Aug 2019 Table 130 HORSE1A
Which of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for in a Democratic primary?

Base: Democrats AND After Debates (After July 31 11:00 PM ET)
Total: Unweighted Base 585, Weighted Base 570

  • Joe Biden 196 – 34%
  • Bernie Sanders 95 – 17%
  • Elizabeth Warren 47 – 8%
  • Kamala Harris 47 – 9%
  • Pete Buttigieg 21 – 4%
  • Beto O’Rourke 17 – 3%
  • Tim Ryan 4 – 1%
  • Tulsi Gabbard 1 – 0%
  • Andrew Yang 7 – 1%
  • Michael Bloomberg 2 – 0%
  • Cory Booker 13 – 2%
  • Amy Klobuchar 7 – 1%
  • John Delaney 1 – 0%
  • Julian Castro 4 – 1%
  • Kirsten Gillibrand 1 – 0%
  • Seth Moulton 1 – 0%
  • Marianne Williamson 2 – 0%
  • Mike Gravel 4 – 1%
  • Tom Steyer 3 – 1%
  • John Hickenlooper 1 – 0%
  • Jay Inslee 2 – 0%
  • Eric Swalwell 2 – 0%
  • Wayne Messam 0 – 0%
  • Other 2 – 0%
  • Not sure 80 – 14%
  • Not planning on voting 8 – 1%

Why were the questions on the Primary vote delayed until late in the poll – page 151 out of 170?

My following opinion is that it took the pollsters that many questions to slant the views of the respondents to vote for the candidates the pollsters wanted.

On page 116 the poll asks:

Now we will show you some names and groups. Please indicate if you have a favorable or unfavorable view of that person or group – or if you’ve never heard of them…

  • Donald Trump 95%
  • Barack Obama 94%
  • Hillary Clinton 93%
  • U.S. Military 92%
  • Facebook 91%
  • Bernie Sanders 88%
  • Joe Biden 87%
  • U.S. Supreme Court 86%
  • FBI 86%
  • Nancy Pelosi 84%
  • Mike Pence 84%
  • Department of Justice 84%
  • Elizabeth Warren 77%
  • Robert Mueller 74%
  • Kamala Harris 72%
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 70%
  • Mitch McConnell 69%
  • Chuck Schumer 66%
  • Beto O’Rourke 62%
  • Pete Buttigieg 56%
  • William Barr 55%
  • Ilhan Omar 54%
  • Nikki Haley 51%
  • Rashida Tlaib 49%
  • Larry Kudlow 35%
  • Ayanna Pressley 33%

Then the poll delves into favorable, unfavorable, etc. on each of the folks and topics above, again repeating only these candidate names:

  • Joe Biden
  • Bernie Sanders
  • Elizabeth Warren
  • Kamala Harris
  • Pete Buttigieg
  • Beto O’Rourke

At this point respondents are finally asked who they would pick for nominee and – Holy Mackerel – the top six, the big winners in the poll, are exactly the same as the top six “mentioned” in the multiple questioning.

How important is this? These same six are also the only ones to poll above 1%, with the exception of Cory Booker (2%).

The September debates require getting 2% in four authorized polls, and having more than 130,000 unique donors to their campaign.

Harvard-Harris_July_2019_Topline_Summary

HHP_July 2019_Crosstabs_Detailed

In January 2017, Harris polling was acquired by the Stagwell Group, 1700 K Street Northwest Suite 750 Washington, DC 20006. Stagwell is a private equity firm that offers financial planning and investment management services.

Mark J. Penn is president of Stagwell and a former executive of the Microsoft Corporation, as well as PR firm Burson-Marsteller.

Together with Doug Schoen, according to Wikipedia, he was co-founder of the polling firm Penn Schoen Berland, whose clients have included U.S. President Bill Clinton, British prime minister Tony Blair, and Bill Gates. Penn was a chief strategist and pollster in the Hillary Clinton 2008 presidential campaign.

Tuesday, next week – read about another poll to decide if they “laundered” results.

Categories: Army, Politics

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